BTA Admin 
Petrol and diesel prices are expected to decline at fuel pumps in Ghana from Friday, October 16, 2026, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) could record a sharp 18.5% increase, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
The Chamber’s pricing outlook projects petrol prices to fall by almost 2% to GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel is expected to decline by 3.32% to GH¢19.30 per litre.
LPG, however, is projected to rise to GH¢20.60 per kilogram, potentially increasing costs for households and businesses that rely on the fuel for cooking and other activities.
The figures are projections for the next pricing window, meaning actual pump prices may vary among oil marketing companies.
How fuel prices are expected to change
The projected adjustments show contrasting movements across Ghana’s main petroleum products.
- Petrol: Expected to fall by almost 2% to GH¢17.67 per litre.
- Diesel: Projected to decline by 3.32% to GH¢19.30 per litre.
- LPG: Expected to rise by 18.5% to GH¢20.60 per kilogram.
The projected reductions in petrol and diesel could offer some relief to motorists and transport operators. However, the expected LPG increase could put additional pressure on households and businesses that depend on gas.
Why petrol and diesel could fall despite rising crude oil prices
COMAC attributed the projected price changes to developments in the international petroleum market, exchange-rate movements and government interventions.
According to the Chamber, average crude oil prices increased by 2.03% to US$126.73 per barrel during the period under review.
It linked the increase to renewed concerns about global oil supplies, including uncertainty surrounding a proposed US-backed energy ceasefire involving Ukraine and fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia amid the war with Iran.
Despite the rise in crude oil prices, refined petroleum products recorded mixed movements on the international market. LPG prices increased by 7.77%, while diesel prices fell by 6.68% and petrol prices declined by 3.93%.
These movements help explain why the expected changes at Ghanaian fuel pumps differ across products.
Cedi depreciation continues to put pressure on fuel costs
The Ghana cedi also weakened against the US dollar during the period covered by the Chamber’s report.
COMAC said the cedi depreciated by 1.61% to GH¢11.8222 per dollar, based on average bank rates between September 26 and October 11, 2026.
The Chamber added that the currency had lost more than 11% of its value against the dollar so far this year, with seasonal import demand and higher energy costs continuing to put pressure on the exchange rate.
Because petroleum products are traded internationally in dollars, cedi depreciation can increase the local-currency cost of importing fuel, although the final pump price also depends on international refined-product prices, taxes, levies and other pricing components.
Government interventions influenced the previous pricing window
During the October 1 pricing window, most oil marketing companies maintained their pump prices following the introduction of a GH¢2 levy on diesel and a government intervention involving Tema Oil Refinery and Sentuo Oil.
The two refineries supplied refined petroleum products to oil marketing companies at previous prices, according to the report.
The intervention formed part of the developments influencing fuel pricing, even as international crude oil prices and exchange-rate pressures continued to affect the market.
NPA reduces petrol and diesel price floors
The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has also lowered the minimum prices at which petrol and diesel can be sold during the October 16 pricing window.
Market data cited by Joy Business indicates that the petrol price floor has been reduced from GH¢16.45 to GH¢16.09 per litre.
The diesel price floor has fallen from GH¢17.97 to GH¢17.09 per litre.
For LPG, however, the price floor has increased from GH¢11.10 to GH¢13.87 per kilogram.
The NPA explained that the price floors exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), and margins charged by oil marketing and LPG marketing companies.
These additional charges are determined by the respective companies in accordance with the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.
What this means for consumers
If the projections materialise, motorists could pay slightly less for petrol and diesel, while households using LPG could face a considerably higher cost per kilogram.
The impact will depend on the prices announced by individual fuel retailers and the quantities consumers purchase.
For now, the key development is the expected split in fuel prices: modest relief for petrol and diesel users, but a potentially sharp increase for LPG consumers.
